Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 2020 | 1840 | 22050 | 51 | 6 | 504 | 669 |
| September 27 2020 | 1887 | 22343 | 55 | 6 | 489 | 655 |
| September 28 2020 | 1940 | 22384 | 56 | 6 | 464 | 681 |
| September 29 2020 | 1969 | 22457 | 57 | 6 | 442 | 683 |
| September 30 2020 | 2000 | 22608 | 57 | 6 | 414 | 664 |
| October 01 2020 | 2016 | 22604 | 59 | 7 | 399 | 618 |
| October 02 2020 | 2058 | 23129 | 60 | 7 | 408 | 582 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.1 | 5.9% | 24 | 0.21% | 24 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 6.0 | 15.9% | 65 | 0.48% | 105 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 12.7 | 33.6% | 137 | 0.65% | 222 | 1.06% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.0 | 14.7% | 60 | 0.44% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 2.9 | 7.4% | 30 | 0.29% | 38 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.6 | 11.8% | 48 | 0.38% | 58 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.7 | 7.1% | 29 | 0.25% | 38 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.6 | 4.2% | 17 | 0.16% | 21 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 42 | 40.3 | 100% | 408 | 0.39% | 582 | 0.56% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 2020 | 522 | 14550 | 21 | 0 | 88 | 113 |
| September 27 2020 | 546 | 14662 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 128 |
| September 28 2020 | 555 | 14749 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 135 |
| September 29 2020 | 567 | 14825 | 23 | 0 | 101 | 144 |
| September 30 2020 | 585 | 14916 | 23 | 0 | 109 | 151 |
| October 01 2020 | 595 | 15034 | 24 | 0 | 115 | 148 |
| October 02 2020 | 610 | 15169 | 24 | 0 | 128 | 154 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 6.2% | 8 | 0.1% | 10 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.0 | 11.7% | 15 | 0.18% | 20 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.0 | 15.6% | 20 | 0.28% | 26 | 0.37% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.3 | 14.1% | 18 | 0.21% | 19 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.0 | 11.7% | 15 | 0.19% | 19 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.4 | 19.5% | 25 | 0.26% | 29 | 0.3% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.3 | 8.6% | 11 | 0.13% | 14 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 6 | 2.0 | 10.9% | 14 | 0.2% | 15 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 15 | 13.3 | 100% | 128 | 0.2% | 154 | 0.24% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 2020 | 456 | 8947 | 21 | 4 | 53 | 61 |
| September 27 2020 | 466 | 8957 | 21 | 4 | 61 | 70 |
| September 28 2020 | 478 | 8960 | 21 | 5 | 71 | 80 |
| September 29 2020 | 482 | 8995 | 22 | 5 | 71 | 81 |
| September 30 2020 | 490 | 9086 | 23 | 6 | 70 | 87 |
| October 01 2020 | 498 | 9085 | 23 | 6 | 78 | 93 |
| October 02 2020 | 504 | 9093 | 24 | 6 | 82 | 97 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 2020 | 2990 | 24931 | 46 | 2 | 979 | 1365 |
| September 27 2020 | 3047 | 25107 | 46 | 2 | 926 | 1293 |
| September 28 2020 | 3055 | 25337 | 46 | 2 | 680 | 1256 |
| September 29 2020 | 3095 | 25426 | 47 | 2 | 620 | 1206 |
| September 30 2020 | 3130 | 25673 | 50 | 3 | 562 | 1119 |
| October 01 2020 | 3205 | 26119 | 50 | 3 | 583 | 1084 |
| October 02 2020 | 3245 | 26344 | 52 | 3 | 547 | 870 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.1% | 6 | 0.05% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 9.7 | 24.7% | 135 | 0.82% | 235 | 1.42% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 14.0 | 35.6% | 195 | 0.92% | 364 | 1.71% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.9 | 9.7% | 53 | 0.39% | 68 | 0.5% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 2.9 | 7.1% | 39 | 0.29% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.7 | 8.6% | 47 | 0.33% | 56 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.3 | 7.3% | 40 | 0.28% | 47 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.9 | 5.9% | 32 | 0.25% | 48 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 40 | 42.7 | 100% | 547 | 0.46% | 870 | 0.74% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 2020 | 9488 | 195129 | 364 | 41 | 1504 | 2099 |
| September 27 2020 | 9607 | 195692 | 366 | 41 | 1365 | 1985 |
| September 28 2020 | 9763 | 196362 | 368 | 41 | 1308 | 1917 |
| September 29 2020 | 9857 | 197220 | 369 | 42 | 1222 | 1961 |
| September 30 2020 | 10129 | 198198 | 375 | 43 | 1314 | 2145 |
| October 01 2020 | 10201 | 199479 | 379 | 43 | 1306 | 1959 |
| October 02 2020 | 10217 | 200458 | 382 | 43 | 1270 | 1762 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.1 | 3.8% | 48 | 0.08% | 60 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 24.0 | 21.1% | 268 | 0.38% | 442 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 32.6 | 27.2% | 345 | 0.33% | 501 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | -7 | 22.1 | 16.9% | 214 | 0.28% | 260 | 0.34% |
| 40-49 | -15 | 13.0 | 10.8% | 137 | 0.21% | 183 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 16.3 | 11.5% | 146 | 0.22% | 176 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 8.0 | 5.8% | 74 | 0.14% | 92 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 5 | 4.4 | 3% | 38 | 0.08% | 48 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 16 | 124.6 | 100% | 1270 | 0.23% | 1762 | 0.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 2020 | 113645 | 1393412 | 7041 | 1281 | 20933 | 26042 |
| September 27 2020 | 115862 | 1399218 | 7095 | 1281 | 21116 | 26677 |
| September 28 2020 | 117588 | 1405377 | 7142 | 1283 | 20309 | 27632 |
| September 29 2020 | 119955 | 1413774 | 7209 | 1300 | 20393 | 28651 |
| September 30 2020 | 122274 | 1423247 | 7300 | 1327 | 21047 | 29562 |
| October 01 2020 | 125161 | 1434721 | 7409 | 1348 | 22663 | 30415 |
| October 02 2020 | 127906 | 1445571 | 7506 | 1353 | 23736 | 30627 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 74 | 78.1 | 3.4% | 804 | 0.13% | 999 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 313 | 284.6 | 12.3% | 2916 | 0.39% | 4151 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 523 | 493.0 | 20.8% | 4948 | 0.65% | 6829 | 0.9% |
| 30-39 | 383 | 373.3 | 14.9% | 3541 | 0.47% | 4413 | 0.58% |
| 40-49 | 414 | 344.6 | 13.8% | 3286 | 0.47% | 4066 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 470 | 399.6 | 16.1% | 3832 | 0.47% | 4680 | 0.57% |
| 60-69 | 304 | 266.6 | 10.7% | 2549 | 0.34% | 3126 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 264 | 200.0 | 7.8% | 1860 | 0.29% | 2363 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 2745 | 2439.7 | 100% | 23736 | 0.41% | 30627 | 0.53% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.6 | 77.2 | 106.1 | 40.3 | 51.1 | 16.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.8 | 13.3 | 8.6 | 9.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.4 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 17.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73.6 | 142 | 171 | 42.7 | 117.6 | 16.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.2 | 62.2 | 48.2 | 124.6 | 149.9 | 12.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.6 | 54.8 | 90.2 | 2439.7 | 1791.7 | 21.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 21.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1493"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges